Ethiopian government waged war on many fronts, what could happen?

Ethiopian government led by the Nobel Laureate Abiy Ahmed has waged war against its own people on many fronts. The war on some fronts are louder than others. The first war since Abiy Ahmed took power was waged two years ago on Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) -military wing of Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) on the West and Southern Oromia. Another war ordered on the Oromo people to indiscriminately arrest and kill since the death of Artist Hachalu Hundessa in June 2020. On the 3rd of November 2020, another war was waged on the Tigray Regional State. Even if these are the longstanding war fronts, the military have been attacking the Sidama, Wolayta and Gurage communities at different times.

The Ethiopian Government is currently under control of conservative group who wish to bring back the feudal system where the current federal system removed and centralized government established dominated by one language, culture and religion-the old Ethiopia.

The current war waged on Tigray Region is not between the Ethiopian people and Tigrayan people. It is the war between the conservative group led by Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray Region. It is given a pretext to remove the old Tigray Peoples Liberation Front leaders. But the war doesn’t stop there. The Tigray people are more organized and experienced than others in war.

It is a recent memory that the government general Birhanu Jula asserted two years ago when they started war with Oromo Liberation Army that they will removed OLA and finish the war within two months. But the reality on the ground today is that the war front from the West is approaching the capital Addis Ababa. The same is true about the war waged on the whole Oromia; it is becoming difficult and complex every day. The government has arrested the main opposition leaders like Jawar Mohammed and Bekele Gerba, but the chaos continues, and people are staging demonstration and rebellion.

While the country is fragile and in chaos, the government led by the conservative with the ambition of Feudal system has waged war on Tigray regional state.

What could happen?

  1. The country is in a fragile situation. The public do not supports the war. The only group supporting the war on Tigray is the Amhara Elites and the Eritrean Government which is currently involving in Ethiopian internal issues
  2. Tigray is well experienced in war. The TPLF led guerrilla has been in war with Dergue for 20 years and won the war. The geography of Tigray is difficult for outsiders to take strategic places. Almost 80% of the military equipment is in the hands of the Tigray Regional State. They moved it to Tigray while they were on power for the last 27 years.
  3. The war is difficult and complex. It doesn’t end in short period of time. It demands economy. Ethiopia has no good economy, and neither is Eritrea which is currently in favour of the war against its foe. The people of Ethiopia opposing the war and the previous rebellion will continue. The war is so intense, and it could cost both many lives and huge economy.
  4. When we balance the above points nr. 1 with nr. 2 and drive it with nr. 3, the war ends by TPLF winning and coming to Addis Ababa, removing Abiy Ahmed and Eritrea being ashamed and turning home. The people are against the government and the chaos may continue for some time.
  5. This war for obvious reasons does not include other nations and nationalities in Ethiopia than the Amhara Regional state. The war is now going on the border of Tigray and Amhara Region. The two regions are in conflict for the last two years due to border towns claim. The people of Ethiopia do not need more war. They have had enough for years and the poverty is the main enemy. But the Nobel peace Laureate is waging war on its people, and it is shame both for him and the Nobel institute.

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